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  • gapala
    06-07 04:39 PM
    The 10 to 12% down south estimate might be true on the average. However, from where I stand now, in my county not just my zip code, house prices started to go up by 0.8% since January. It might still go down as I see fluctuations but I feel that it's stabilizing already.

    But only time can tell, right? All I'm doing right now is to satisfy myself that I made a right decision. Should I find out that it's a mistake, I should be truthful to myself that I did. There's no reason to lie to my ownself. JunRN, My comments are not about your individual situation but rather a broader analysis. Individual cases may be different based on location preference and affordability and other social factors.

    Historically, during the summer time, home prices will marginally increase as many people are expected to or will go around to buy homes. If you look at any listing which shows the historic prices such as trulia.. you will see that Builders are resorting to same tactics.. 20000 increase... some time around mid May 2009.... It will continue for couple of months.. but will not sustain in this situation. During the end of Fall into winter, it is going to come down and by Mid 2010.. based on popular economic forecast the prices will floor.

    Think about this, Every one knows that Home prices cannot go up in the midst of job losses and recession....unless there is Inflation, in which case, House prices will be the last thing to rise.. after all the consumer goods and services start to peak.. The media in this country is messing around with people's head with their opinion playing it over and over again as if they got it all figured out... to drive people to make stupid decisions and take up huge financial commitments..

    Lot of builders are already filing for bankruptcy and banks who lent them, end up owning the properties... What do they do with all those houses if no one can afford to buy them? .. they wreck the new houses... Yes.. This is going to be another round of collapse comming our way unless.. they reform immigration policies to allow more educated folks who can buy those homes..... I should say its happening... Let me give you an example..

    No Sale: Bank Wrecks New Houses
    A Texas bank is about done demolishing 16 new and partially built houses acquired in Southern California through foreclosure, figuring it was better to knock them down than to try selling them in the depressed housing market. Guaranty Bank of Austin is wrecking the structures to provide a "safe environment" for neighbors of the abandoned housing tract in Victorville, a high-desert city about 85 miles northeast of Los Angeles, a bank spokesman said.

    Victorville city officials said the bank told them the cost of finishing the development would exceed what they could sell the homes for. The bank also faced escalating city fines as vandals and squatters took over the sprawling housing project, leaving behind graffiti and drug paraphernalia, city officials said. "It's unfortunate," said George Duran, the city's code-enforcement manager. "We would have hoped for these houses to be finished. But it's up to the owner to see what is best for them." Home prices in San Bernardino County, where Victorville is located, have fallen 60% from the housing peak in 2006, according to DataQuick, a research firm. The median new-home price in Victorville is $265,990, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, a housing-research firm. Homes in the Victorville development were priced at a range of $280,00 to $350,000 in early 2008, according to Hanley Wood.

    Demolishing vacant houses in economically troubled, inner-city neighborhoods is common. But the demolitions in Victorville show how the housing market is weighing on lenders even in once-booming suburbs. The houses were built by a California developer less than two years ago, according to city records. Guaranty Bank has significant exposure to construction loans to home builders. Last month, its parent company, Guaranty Financial Group, was issued a "cease and desist" order by the federal Office of Thrift Supervision, citing the firm's "unsafe and unsound banking practices."

    Many lenders, like Guaranty, have been foreclosing on home builders whose projects have gone bust. Regulators told Guaranty to come up with a plan to dispose of its foreclosed properties. But finding buyers is difficult, as home values remain under pressure. ... read the full story here.. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124148169574985359.html

    I believe after the correction, 2010 is going to be a better year for deals on homes..





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  • JunRN
    06-07 02:07 PM
    JunRN, it all depends on how much risk are you willing to take in what area. Equity is generally believed or historically trended to provide 10% returns over 10 years span (multiple market cycles). Where as dwelling as an investment provides a marginal 3 to 5% depending on location in a normal growth rate (Exception to Bubble). Equity market has nose dived as did housing market and people consider it too risky to invest at this stage in equity due to uncertinities (lot of companies may not make it through though times or No. PC companies which has become QPC -filed for chapter11 protection has increased) even though it doesn't involve huge amounts as housing at per unit basis. For investers, same applies for dwelling investment as well at a higher scale. More Chapter 11->more job losses->more houses on foreclosure.

    Just to counter your argument, Let me tell you one scenario, When stock market went down, I invested in shares some time back in February 09, as of today, If I look at the individual investment, it stands at 60% increased. But I do not think that it will provide me a 60% returns.. over 10 years... I expect only 10% and may increase to 15% in the long run which is a ball park number.

    Lot of sellers/brokers referred Zillow during 2006 and early 2007 (Bubble) to sell their houses at an inflated prices as I mentioned earlier, when it went up 20000 per month for several months.. Based on these numbers..people streached themself and jumped to grab one before it goes beyond their reach thinking that it will continue to go up.. Now, the houses values under water and they are whining about it every day and night.. some of their home values evapourated by 30 to 40%. (I am talking about 100,000 to 150,000 south). Zillow goes up and down.. in short term depending on historic sales and builder's listing price changes, not based on any economic outlook. Every agent wears two hats and is two-faced, because a home�s �value� has to be higher when represent a seller and lower when represent a buyer. The Zillow range of value represents best hope for buyer at the low end of the range, and highest for seller at the high end of that range.

    Here's what they say about it in disclaimer "The Zestimate is not an appraisal and you won't be able to use it in place of an appraisal, though you can certainly share it with real estate professionals. It is a computer-generated estimate of the worth of a house today, given the data we have available. Zillow.com does not offer the Zestimate as the basis of any specific real-estate-related financial transaction. Our data sources may be incomplete or incorrect; also, we have not physically inspected a specific home."

    My point is, Unless the correction happens in housing market, which is widely believed to be another 10 to 12% further south from where it stands now.. there is always a risk in buying one thinking that its going to appreciate in next 10 years. Remember though the demand cycles for realty market is lenghty ones which will rise once in 10 to 15 years but this does not mean that there's going to be another bubble again to hike it up by 100 and 200% :). It may rise as historically did to provide a 3 to 4% returns. This is regardless of location... location.. location.. First, It will take time to stabilize the market just because there's too much supply, affordiability issue and aging population.

    Buy or not, depends on whether and how much you are willing and open to take risk. Higher the risk, higher the returns.. doesn't mean it applies to stupid decisions... One thing I wanted to mention though, we have utilization value for living in a house, bigger than an apartment, again its an individual perspective.

    I have not entered into the discussion of the intrinsic/utilization value of owning a home specially with 3 small kids like mine because it's hard to put a $$ value without being biased.

    The 10 to 12% down south estimate might be true on the average. However, from where I stand now, in my county not just my zip code, house prices started to go up by 0.8% since January. It might still go down as I see fluctuations but I feel that it's stabilizing already.

    Could I have waited until home prices go down another 10%? Probably a wiser decision but as I monitor home purchase price of same model as mine in same community, not one was able to buy same model home as low as my purchase price. So I felt relieved.

    But only time can tell, right? All I'm doing right now is to satisfy myself that I made a right decision. Should I find out that it's a mistake, I should be truthful to myself that I did. There's no reason to lie to my ownself.





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  • willwin
    07-14 08:54 AM
    send the damn letter, nothing happens, and then come back here and vent your frustration again. as you said, buddy, HARD LUCK indeed !!

    I cannot believe the nerve that you EB-3 India guys have. You are begging for a GC based on your length of wait!!! laughable at best...........go wait a decade or so more, then come back here and start this useless BS again.

    one good thing happens for the EB-2 folks, and the EB-3 community cannot stomach it. pure freaking jealousy.


    Agreed! But what is your problem? Check your pressure ASAP. It doesn't spare you just because you are EB2!





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  • xyzgc
    12-20 03:44 PM
    I was saddened and anguised with the terrrorist attacks that happened in Mumbai. I hope India follows up on its tough talk and goes after the perpetrators, no matter their affliation or the consequences. That was a provocation and I would love to see LeT or anyone else responsible to pay for it.

    But It is sad to see 'educated individuals' channeling their anger to demonize muslims who are equally upset with the Mumbai incident. Just like any religion/race, there are extreme elements among muslims. But this guilt-by-association should not have any place in modern society though sadly it does. There have been subtle and some not-so-subtle attempts on IV to protray all muslims as terrorists or all terrorists as muslim.

    I agree that there are a lot of current terrorist activities that can be attributed to muslims and I condemn them. But Indian muslims have stood up against this latest incident. They are asked to wear their allegiance on the sleeve as if they are in some way responsible for this heinous crime. There are numerous examples of non-muslims who are terrorists but in my view that does not render the whole community as such. The gujarat genocide, the attacks on christians in Orissa and other parts are led by the VHP/RSS but the right wing marketing blitz has been so effective, a lot of people have defended this as a reaction. That is exactly the kind of excuse the LeT or any other terrorist organization would make.

    Why is it so hard to say - Lets punish the guilty irrespective of their name or religion. Lets have a transparent Criminal justice system. Lets investigate any crime before guilty verdict is pronounced. That would render ineffective any propaganda that extremists use to recruit new members. Most of the people in this forum live in America and the law of this country would be in my view a good example of punishing the guilty irrespective of who and where they come from.

    Agree with parts of it.
    Disagree strongly with your statement

    But It is sad to see 'educated individuals' channeling their anger to demonize muslims who are equally upset with the Mumbai incident. Just like any religion/race, there are extreme elements among muslims.


    Most muslims are NOT upset with the mumbai incident, especially muslims in Pakistan. They floated the theory that this was the handiwork of Hindus and Kasam (or whatever the name is) is saffron and not green.
    Only Some muslim moderates sound very sincere in condemning it.
    You need to do some reading before making some statements.

    On this forum itself there are folks like buddysinfo a.k.a aCool who have been leaving very filthy, unspeakable offline messages like mf***r, sf***r, ur mom f****d by paki, chop ur d**k off and so forth...a lot of these folks kept saying everything was a security failure, over and over again. Nobody is denying that but its an attempt to create a diversion. Just like politicians.
    Check out the closed thread "Mumbai attacked". Read through it properly and if you are a non-muslim/unbiased muslim, please accept the truth.

    Having said that, its wrong not to channelize your energy properly and bad mouth the entire community and IV threads are not to be used for it. I did it myself and I admit its wrong but its NOT gonna change the truth.



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  • srkamath
    07-13 12:11 PM
    I really admire this initiative for EB3-I by some members. We need a strong argument to put forth. This letter is very weak. The opening statement needs work. There are too many abbreviations.

    Please do not make the letter sound like a whine or a rant about someone else who followed the rules getting ahead - this will not work, neither will a plea.
    Complaining to the USCIS or DOL or DOS that they are not interpreting the law favorably for a certain group will not make the cut. None of them have much discretionary authority here and definitely no arbitrary powers.

    The executive branch of the US gov (incl DOL, DOS, DHS) is limited to working within the law - they can revise their interpretation of a law if it converges with the intent of congress - not if it diverges from it.

    Immigration laws are written to benefit the US and not for fairness to potential immigrants - that is how it is. The DOS is presently interpreting the law the most accurately ever. The problem is the law - not the interpretation.

    EB3 badly needs backlog relief. This is a congressional matter and not executive.





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  • logiclife
    11-15 10:55 AM
    Today's entire column written by Lou Dobbs is something that our dear Lou is really familiar with.

    No, its not middle class.
    No, its not the illegal immigration or the minimum wage.
    And no, its not outsourcing and corporate greed.

    Its ...tada..LOU DOBBS.

    So today, on CNN.com Lou Dobbs presents : Lou Dobbs. (http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/11/14/Dobbs.Nov15/index.html)


    See, this the first sign a journalist is losing traction and becoming pathetic. He starts talking about himself/herself.

    That's why, like I said before in a previous thread, there is nothing to worry about from this guy, he is really George Costanza of CNN, only less funny and a little more portly.

    -Enjoy-



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  • NKR
    04-08 03:07 PM
    Ha Ha ..I guess I have put some salt (unintentionally) on somebody's wounds. NKR ..when did you buy your house and where ?
    btw yes ..there have been cases reported where a worker working in Target wrote that her income was 80K ..and managed to get a loan for 400K. (needless to say that house is in foreclosure ..if people had read such stories before rushing to buy during the peak ,..)
    and no ..my intention is not to keep this thread alive but it was to make people like you fight more for admin fixes. my goal was to link GC to investing more in US. people say lets meet senators ..o.k..meet them and tell what ?? ..there is no word from Core on this ..and hence lets do brainstorming and come up with ideas.


    Why do you assume that everyone who wants to buy a home are earning 80k and is dumb enough to buy a 400k home?. Why do you assume that a person who wants to buy a house has not saved enough to put a significant chunk as down-payment?. Why do you assume that a person who wants to buy a house is single and has no double income?. Why do you assume that a person who wants to buy a house is buying in CA only?. Why do you assume that a person who wants to buy a house has not found a house in a very good location and for a very good price?. Why do you assume that people like me listen to people like you and fight more for admix fixes?. Why do you want to live in a shoe box like place all your life?.





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  • walking_dude
    09-29 03:47 PM
    Please read my post. I wrote 'contribute' and not vote! I know LPRs cannot vote, but they can certainly contribute to election campaigns. Assuming USCIS uses even 100,000 of available visas and taking the conservative estimate of 50,000 (50%) of them to be adults, there will be at least 200,000 new EB LPRs between now and 2012. These EB immigrants can definitely help shape the future of their future country of citizenship through their contributions.

    And why should I pray? If this country doesn't need me, I'll move over to some other that better respects me. And whom should I pray for? Mcain - author of CIR 2007 -who doesn't care either way?

    I would rather have Durbin send me back in a year rather than have McCain waste 4 more years trying to sell CIR to extreme right-wing-nuts who form the base of Repub party,and Hispanic voters. And get the resulting medley passed through a Dem congress. It will be another repeatition of CIR 2007, which was incidently authored by McCain.

    I would rather have the issue resolved one-way or another fast in a year or two rather than waste 4 more years for something which I might never see in this life.

    And you think majority of those ppl will get Voting rights by 2012....forget it...Most of the ppl here are lucky to get tehir GreeN Card by 2012....

    There is no reasoin for him to pander future voters......He will be most likely agnostic to EB issues, however, as noted..if Durbin is his Immigration advisor..then we are toast...so pray for the best...



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  • alisa
    01-10 11:22 AM
    Israel is not invading Gaza for no reason. Why do coward Palestinians need to fire rockets and send those suicide bombers to blow themselves? Muslims need to stop violence in the name of their religion. Why don't you stop killing people, so you would get 72 virgins in some loser world! Israel is doing the right thing and I will support its action. Yes, innocent people get killed, but Hamas need to fight in the open field instead of launching rockets from schools and hospitals.

    Exactly!! Just like the Europeans had a right to defend themselves against the Native Americans.

    Fortunately for them, they did their ethnic cleansing before the mass media and enlightenment. God bless them for it. Now we can come from far and distant places to get permanent residency into this land.

    Unfortunately for the Israelis, like Benny Morris recently said, they couldn't kill all their Barbarians (the Arabs/Palestinians) in the 1940s. Had they completely ethnically cleansed Israel/Palestine of the Arabs back then, we wouldn't have this Israel/Arab problem today.





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  • whattodo
    07-11 01:58 PM
    Her employer was not willing for her to start before SSN, so we had to wait. I hope that this will not be a problem.

    That should not cause any problems.

    On another note, one can start working as long as he/she has applied for SSN. One does NOT need ssn at hand to start working.


    _______________________
    Not a legal advice.



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  • sanju
    04-08 10:30 PM
    Make no mistake about it, IEEE-USA is not for any meaningful reform. They say that they support green card reform but actually they don’t. Otherwise they would have included some green card provisions in this bill, at least 485 filing provision. They make it look like they support green card reform because they do not want themselves to be looked upon as anti-immigrants. But that is who they are.

    Just as an example: Ron Hira says that H1s drive down wages when they come and work here. If we go back, Ron Hira says H1s promote outsourcing. If we stay here, Ron Hira says we take jobs of people here. So no matter what we do, the bottom line is, IEEE-USA has a problem with people on H1. They have a problem with our existence, not just here, but anywhere. Why? Because they don't like competition from us. And here is another fact, guys lobbying for this bill are actually racist and they just warp their objective around the economic argument.





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  • unseenguy
    06-24 11:55 PM
    Why are be debating 3 - 4 years rent vs own? As the subject indicates "long" term prospects of buying a home..we of all the ppl should know the meaning of the word "long" based on our "long" wait for PD (which I think should be renamed to retrogress date because I see nothing priority about it)..the point being lets debate 10 years rent vs own..as against 3-4...I think over a 10 year timeline the buyers would come out ahead of the renters..maybe not in CA but in other states that's quite likely..

    I agree that over 10 years buyers "may" come ahead of renters but our question is will buyers of : 2009 come out ahead of 2010 buyers or 2011 buyers? Also is it worth taking a risk and wait 1-2 years given the state of economy and our GC in limbo.

    I have been paying rent since 2001 and my friends bought houses in 2004 & 2007. None at the moment think they are ahead of me due to their decision :) :p



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  • unitednations
    03-26 09:24 PM
    Thanks UN. Just a follow up question, how would you advise to cases where the labor was filed at client location and the employee shifted to another state right after the 140 approval. I guess in this case there is no chance of convincing USCIS about AC-21 invokation. How would you act if such query comes up? Or is there a chance to get this query these days at the time of 485 processing.? Thanks in advance. With this, I would have all my doubts clarified regarding the work location. And also, I hope it does to so many others.

    Stating the obvious: Your attorney was a knucklehead?

    USCIS hasn't gone to zero tolerance on 140/485 so it is doubtful that you will get such a query.

    Are you still on H-1b?

    If you want to bullet proof yourself then do an eb2 labor now; port the priority date and then inter-file the 485 or file new 485 on eb2 140 which would have been done appropriately. You can get your greencard dependency on the new 140 without losing much in terms of waiting and getting peace of mind.





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  • Macaca
    03-04 06:04 PM
    Over the next five weeks, The Washington Post will tell Gerald Cassidy's story in a unique way. On Monday, the series will jump to the newspaper's Web site, washingtonpost.com/citizen-k-street, to begin a 25-chapter serial narrative that will describe how Cassidy built his business, how he made the deals that earned his millions, how he and his fellow-lobbyists influenced decisions of government and helped create the money-centric culture of modern Washington.



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  • paskal
    07-15 03:07 AM
    Thanks. I will look into it further when I get a chance. the number of GC granted in a year is complicated- and for the moment I speak offhand so correct me if needed. Till 2005, the recapture clouded the numbers. After that EB3 benefited from a Schedule A recapture that went almost entirely to EB3, a lot to EB3 Philipenes and a good chunk to EB3 India.

    AFAIK last year though, once that was ll over and vertical spillover was implemented, EB2/EB3 Inid should both have got only the strict country quota mandated GC numbers.

    Anway- offhand as I said...gotto rum.


    sc3,

    here are the allotments as posted elsewhere.

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (EB India allocations)
    ------------------------------------
    EB1 1,266 2,998 6,336 3,156 2,855

    EB2 8,536 16,262 16,687 3,720 6,203

    EB3 10,647 19,889 23,250 3,006 17,795


    Continuing on what i said- till 2005 there was recapture. 2006 reflects what would happen with a vertical spillover for both EB2 and 3 India- about 3,000 GC a year. In 2007, both (esp EB3I) struck pay dirt because everyone became current in July. Under a situation where all categories are current, Gc are distributed exclusively by RD and country quota is thrown out of the window. That is why so many GC were given to EB3 I last year- it makes sense because this is the largest waiting group.
    However July 07 is not coming back. If vertical spillover continues, 2006 will become the reality. In that situation the waits for both EB2 and EB3 India will be simply indefinite. Unfortunately for EB3 I, they are indefinite either way- UNLESS we get more GC numbers.





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  • gc28262
    03-24 12:40 PM
    I have full sympathy for anyone that has not broken any laws including OP and 'leoindiano". If I had the powers to approve green cards, I would give them away to him and his brother!

    The problem here is no one (consulting company/employee) bothered to make sure that a person on H-1B was allowed to do consulting. I'm not sure who dropped the ball - companies, employees, or the immigration lawyers. But someone should have raised a flag when the type of job was really a temp job. Unfortunately that did not happen.

    Now that the damage has been done, and USCIS is coming after such folks, they are upset that it is happening to them. Again, do note that I am not saying the consultants themselves are less skilled than anyone with FT job. I'm just saying that at the time they got into consulting they did not think of the various consequences. Maybe because no one ever thought that working at different locations, benching, temp nature of the jobs were all against H-1B visa rules?

    You get my point?

    sledge_hammer,

    Why don't you define what a "permanent" job is ?
    You think FT job is a permanent job and consulting is a temporary job ? I don't think so.

    There are consultants working for years in a consulting firm. ( Don't bring H1B into the picture) . There are many FT employees being laid off from companies before contractors are let go. Contractors are temporary from a client's perspective not from the sponsoring employer's perspective.

    Try to define a permanent vs temporary job in US without bringing H1B into the picture.



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  • aadimanav
    07-13 10:09 AM
    Friends,

    Please vote here, and share your ideas, regarding "Campaign for Visa Recapture"

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=20132

    There should be enough people supporting any campaign to be successful.

    Thanks,





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  • Macaca
    02-24 07:33 PM
    Indian techie slams CNN Lou Dobbs (http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/10-28a-04.asp)!, N. Sivakumar, October 28, 2004

    In a book titled "Dude, did I steal your job? Debugging Indian Computer programmers", the author, an Indian software engineer, has slammed Lou Dobbs of CNN for calling the foreign high-tech workers as non-tax payers, and humiliating the enormous contributions of foreign high-tech workforce to the American economy.

    "Foreign high-tech workers who come here on H-1B / L1 visas pay every tax that U.S. citizens do, including Social Security and Medicare. But if they return to their homeland, then they will not get any benefits from these programs. The recent recession cost the United States more than half a million foreign high-tech workers who had to return home after paying all these taxes. In fact, Americans owe them money"

    The author writes.

    "The ignorance to mention the stupendous contributions of immigrant high-tech workers was the primary cause for the anti-Indian atmosphere which is seen among computer professionals lately. Unfortunately, neither the media nor the public understand the foreign high-tech workforce. The net result: those who supported the foreign high-tech worker programs have taken a back seat to play safe, and Indians and others who came here on visas, and worked their butts off to make this country prosper are named 'slaves', 'dummies', and 'enemies'. writes the author, N.Sivakumar.

    The book also claims that bringing in foreign high-tech workforce at the right time was the primary reason for America's stupendous high-tech success, and gives statistics and evidence to prove that hadn't America acted quickly, the Europeans would have taken over the software dominance.

    The book also outlines the life, struggle and achievements of Indian programmers in America with entertaining facts, and is a prime discussion topic in many anti-outsourcing and immigration websites lately.





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  • NKR
    08-06 02:14 PM
    Ok, Soni, the person with a heavy Phd head gives me a red, he/she could not argue reasonably in the form and so gives a red in private... so much for her/his phd





    Macaca
    05-18 05:15 PM
    How the Middle East’s uprisings affect China’s foreign relations (http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/05/17/how-the-middle-east-s-uprisings-affect-china-s-foreign-relations/) By Shi Yinhong | Renmin University of China

    The recent uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and elsewhere in the Middle East have important consequences for China’s foreign relations.

    With Washington becoming increasingly preoccupied with the Middle East, it will have less opportunity to focus on China. At the same time, the return of a US policy aimed at promoting democratisation could have a destabilising effect on Sino–US relations. China might reassess how it shapes its relations with highly repressive regimes, and it will have to take into account that Western countries are now better positioned to push resolutions aimed at intervening in certain types of countries through the UN Security Council (UNSC).

    The uprisings run counter to assumptions that the predominant struggle in Middle Eastern politics is between US-backed authoritarian regimes and Islamic fundamentalism. Instead, the recent revolts involve a third force — the ‘urban underdogs.’ These popular movements are largely disorganised, have no leaders and are not based on clearly defined ideas. The uprisings are the outcome of poor economic conditions, the authoritarian suppression of fundamental liberties, and the highly corrupt nature of the ruling elite. Situational factors also play a role: the spill over effect from revolts in one country to the next; the availability of modern forms of communication to enable mobilisation; the use of symbolic places for mass gathering (in the case of Tahrir Square in Cairo); overwhelming attention from the West; and the policy inclinations of the US and European governments.

    As the Arab world transforms, becoming more tumultuous along the way, Washington will face new dilemmas, and the fight against terror will no longer be overwhelmingly dominant. ‘Pushing democracy’ has returned as a major foreign policy theme in Washington as the uprisings partially restore the West’s self-confidence, battered from the financial crisis.

    All of this has major implications for China’s foreign relations. Washington’s deeper involvement in the Middle East is favourable to Beijing, reducing Washington’s ability to place focused attention and pressure on China. But, conversely, the partial return of the push for democracy is not to the benefit of China or stable Sino–US relations. China may need to reconsider its quite amicable relationships with regimes that are repressive, corrupt and have little popular support. Beijing is insufficiently prepared to deal with dramatic political changes in such countries, clearly shown in the past when China’s relations with Iran (1979), Romania (1989) and Serbia (1999) were severely affected. This happened more recently in Zimbabwe, and now also in Egypt and Sudan. Other countries where similar developments could take place are Burma, North Korea and perhaps also Pakistan.

    The Middle Eastern turmoil is also relevant to China’s domestic stability. Some activists in and outside China are hoping for a ‘Chinese jasmine revolution.’ Beijing overreacted somewhat, particularly in the early days, by taking strong domestic security precautions despite no signs of widespread activism in China. This may have been the activists’ immediate purpose: to embarrass the Chinese government and to show its lack of self-confidence to the world and the Chinese public. This in turn could make Beijing more hesitant about deepening economic and political reforms.

    The uprisings are also affecting China’s international position with regard to the issue of intervention. Beijing probably believed they had no choice other than to allow the UNSC to adopt Resolution 1973, which gave the international community the authority to establish a no-fly zone over Libya. It was clear that the US, France and the UK were resolutely determined to launch a military strike, and certain Arab and African countries supported and even intended to join the intervention. Had Beijing vetoed the resolution, China’s relations with both the West and the Arab countries involved would have been severely strained — and the West would have still launched their attack anyway. This was a hard decision for China: Resolution 1973 could form a dangerous precedent in international law, as previous norms have been revised in favour of armed intervention in a domestic conflict. In the future, the US and its allies might reapply this, potentially to the detriment of China’s interests.

    China’s hope for stable Sino–US relations following the state visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to the US in January 2011, and China’s important relationship with Saudi Arabia, had induced Beijing to abstain from using its veto in the UNSC. Moreover, if a similar case does occur in the foreseeable future, it seems rather unlikely that China or Russia would use their veto in order to protect the principle of non-interference. Consequently, the US and its associates in the UNSC might very well see an opportunity to act resolutely in the coming years, with the aim of effecting intervention in other countries, comparable to Libya, a country first of all not allied with them and far distant from them. This is an opportunity that has likely not escaped Washington’s attention.

    Shi Yinhong is Professor of International Relations and Director of the Center on American Studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing

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    Keeme
    12-18 05:02 PM
    be it Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan Somalia,Darfur,Chechnya, Kashmir, Gujarat... everywhere muslims are killed for being muslims...noone goes to cuba,srilanka,north korea,zimbawe or whereever for watever reason...just imagine God forbid someone comes into your house, occupies it, kills your family, your brothers and sisters in front of you and kicks you out of your home and you are seeing no hope of justice... you wont stand outside your home sending flowers like munna bhai's gandhigiri.. trust me you will become a terrorist.


    Palestine -
    Iraq - Aren't you glad to see people are free from dictatorship of Saddam ?
    Afghanistan - Can you name a place on earth which is worst than this country ?Have you seen video how they treat woman ? Have you seen how school girls were thrown acid for attending a school ? Help Nato/ US/ other country to help those poor souls.

    Somalia
    Darfur - Do you really know what is going there ? I wonder why not Middle-east country has come forward to stop that killing so far.
    Chechnya
    Kashmir - More, (may be 1000:1 ratio) pundits/Hindus have been killed there. As I have heard, they had cut 100s Hindu women's **** and hanged in line in main street ! Can you imagine being refugees in your home country !

    Gujarat... - Get your facts clear.Muslims are much safer/prosperous in this state. Riots were normal for all of you till the killed Hindus numbers were higher than killed Muslims. some 1000 local were killed in 2002 including 400 + Hindus. People do not mention what happened before in that burning train and 100 + pilgrims were burnt alive.

    Accept that there is a problem and fight how you can change it. Today some one is become victim, tomorrow it will be your turn. Doesn't matter where you are from/which religion follow.



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