Macaca
12-10 08:55 PM
Moving fast: Tech lobbyist races to results (http://thehill.com/business--lobby/moving-fast-tech-lobbyist-races-to-results-2007-12-11.html) By Kevin Bogardus | The Hill, December 11, 2007
�I really don�t have a strong partisan style. I just like getting things done,� said Hellmann.
Under his helm, the lobbying team at the Information Technology Industry Council (ITI) has earned a reputation as a smart and aggressive advocate on Capitol Hill for the high-tech cause.
Hellmann, 46, joined ITI in 2001 after several years advising House Republican leaders, including then-House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.). But politics was not always foremost on the Florida native�s mind. He describes himself as a former �beach bum� who did not vote in the 1980 presidential election because he could not choose between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter.
�Now I know better,� Hellmann said.
By college, Hellmann�s interest in Washington had begun to simmer. He majored in political science and says he typically flipped to C-SPAN instead of MTV. In 1984, he took a job as a paid intern to then-Rep. Buddy MacKay (D-Fla.).
Hellmann soon after switched sides and began to move up the ranks. He worked for several prominent GOP lawmakers, such as Rep. Newt Gingrich (Ga.), before becoming a key adviser to party leadership. There, Hellmann helped to push through welfare reform, anti-poverty legislation and the No Child Left Behind Act.
The lobbyist always strived for results in Congress and saw the need for both parties to work together. Hellmann put that philosophy into practice as the liaison between then-House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and the coalition of Blue Dog Democrats.
�He knows substance, but even more importantly, he knows the institutional quirks and the process as well as anybody in town,� said Rep. Adam Putman (Fla.), the House Republican Conference chairman. Putnam credits Hellmann with educating members on �how the technology sector is a driver of the economy.�
As ITI�s senior vice president of government relations, Hellmann says it is not difficult to lobby for his trade group�s members � corporations like Dell and eBay � since they are �the coolest companies in the world.�
�We call it the �wow� effect,� said Hellmann. But gone are the days when high-powered executives for tech companies could fly into Washington once a year, meet with lawmakers and expect to achieve what they wanted on Capitol Hill, according to the lobbyist. Now, a daily, active presence is necessary to keep check on Congress, which can affect the industry on multiple fronts.
Increasingly, other well-heeled business lobbies with decades of experience in Washington are weighing in against tech companies� interests. �We have to match them in shoe leather,� said Hellmann.
Adam Kovacevich, Google�s Washington spokesman, described Hellmann as an excellent advocate for the tech cause � a �good consensus-builder� who has �a great understanding of what is actually possible on the Hill.�
�He has never stopped building relationships with new generations of staff,� said Kovacevich, who worked at ITI in 2005.
To maintain ITI�s lobbying prowess, the trade group executive has helped assemble a team of �type-A personalities� who can work with both parties and understand how Congress works. Each lobbyist has between five and 10 years of government service, Hellmann estimated.
�With Rahm, we moved a million miles a minute and we got things done. I felt ITI worked the same way,� said Jon Hoganson, who recently joined ITI from House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emmanuel�s (Ill.) office. �It wasn�t about white papers and setting up meetings.�
Hellmann credits ITI�s quick action with helping to convince Congress to set a date for the country to move from analog to digital television. The trade group and its member companies formed the DTV Coalition, and stressed in Hill meetings that the sale of spectrum bandwidth could generate $10 billion in federal revenue, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.
More recently, ITI has waded into the emotional battle over immigration. Hellmann�s German-born parents came to America in 1956 on his father�s employment visa, so the debate has special resonance for the lobbyist.
�There is a strong nativist element in Washington right now,� said Hellmann. Republicans have weighed in against immigration reform.
Democrats, meanwhile, have railed against trade deals, another ITI priority.
With so much on the trade group�s plate, Hellmann plans to keep ITI up to date on Washington�s happenings and sees no need to slow down.
�Politics is a fast-moving sport,� Hellmann said.
�I really don�t have a strong partisan style. I just like getting things done,� said Hellmann.
Under his helm, the lobbying team at the Information Technology Industry Council (ITI) has earned a reputation as a smart and aggressive advocate on Capitol Hill for the high-tech cause.
Hellmann, 46, joined ITI in 2001 after several years advising House Republican leaders, including then-House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.). But politics was not always foremost on the Florida native�s mind. He describes himself as a former �beach bum� who did not vote in the 1980 presidential election because he could not choose between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter.
�Now I know better,� Hellmann said.
By college, Hellmann�s interest in Washington had begun to simmer. He majored in political science and says he typically flipped to C-SPAN instead of MTV. In 1984, he took a job as a paid intern to then-Rep. Buddy MacKay (D-Fla.).
Hellmann soon after switched sides and began to move up the ranks. He worked for several prominent GOP lawmakers, such as Rep. Newt Gingrich (Ga.), before becoming a key adviser to party leadership. There, Hellmann helped to push through welfare reform, anti-poverty legislation and the No Child Left Behind Act.
The lobbyist always strived for results in Congress and saw the need for both parties to work together. Hellmann put that philosophy into practice as the liaison between then-House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and the coalition of Blue Dog Democrats.
�He knows substance, but even more importantly, he knows the institutional quirks and the process as well as anybody in town,� said Rep. Adam Putman (Fla.), the House Republican Conference chairman. Putnam credits Hellmann with educating members on �how the technology sector is a driver of the economy.�
As ITI�s senior vice president of government relations, Hellmann says it is not difficult to lobby for his trade group�s members � corporations like Dell and eBay � since they are �the coolest companies in the world.�
�We call it the �wow� effect,� said Hellmann. But gone are the days when high-powered executives for tech companies could fly into Washington once a year, meet with lawmakers and expect to achieve what they wanted on Capitol Hill, according to the lobbyist. Now, a daily, active presence is necessary to keep check on Congress, which can affect the industry on multiple fronts.
Increasingly, other well-heeled business lobbies with decades of experience in Washington are weighing in against tech companies� interests. �We have to match them in shoe leather,� said Hellmann.
Adam Kovacevich, Google�s Washington spokesman, described Hellmann as an excellent advocate for the tech cause � a �good consensus-builder� who has �a great understanding of what is actually possible on the Hill.�
�He has never stopped building relationships with new generations of staff,� said Kovacevich, who worked at ITI in 2005.
To maintain ITI�s lobbying prowess, the trade group executive has helped assemble a team of �type-A personalities� who can work with both parties and understand how Congress works. Each lobbyist has between five and 10 years of government service, Hellmann estimated.
�With Rahm, we moved a million miles a minute and we got things done. I felt ITI worked the same way,� said Jon Hoganson, who recently joined ITI from House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emmanuel�s (Ill.) office. �It wasn�t about white papers and setting up meetings.�
Hellmann credits ITI�s quick action with helping to convince Congress to set a date for the country to move from analog to digital television. The trade group and its member companies formed the DTV Coalition, and stressed in Hill meetings that the sale of spectrum bandwidth could generate $10 billion in federal revenue, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates.
More recently, ITI has waded into the emotional battle over immigration. Hellmann�s German-born parents came to America in 1956 on his father�s employment visa, so the debate has special resonance for the lobbyist.
�There is a strong nativist element in Washington right now,� said Hellmann. Republicans have weighed in against immigration reform.
Democrats, meanwhile, have railed against trade deals, another ITI priority.
With so much on the trade group�s plate, Hellmann plans to keep ITI up to date on Washington�s happenings and sees no need to slow down.
�Politics is a fast-moving sport,� Hellmann said.
wallpaper has allowed me to start
adusumilli
08-06 07:38 AM
see this pisses me off. why does a guy who studied using India government money and complaining that US govt. is not doing anything for him. First he should go back to India a pay back his dues he got from studying in IIT.
dealsnet
01-07 12:25 PM
Here I got a comment from a member about the Palastine people. Ask any Indian in middle east about them. They hate the palastines. They consider Indians as inferior to them. They act like superior.
I heard many saying , 'if they behaving like this as a refuge, if they have own country what will be their attitude?'
Some guys support traitors. Any way all terrorists are traitors of the country they live.
see link which a member send to me. www.thereligionofpeace.com
another one.http://www.faithfreedom.org/Articles.htm
I am pasting a feedback from a member.
'got it right, I met many people from palastine, none of them qualifies as good human'
I heard many saying , 'if they behaving like this as a refuge, if they have own country what will be their attitude?'
Some guys support traitors. Any way all terrorists are traitors of the country they live.
see link which a member send to me. www.thereligionofpeace.com
another one.http://www.faithfreedom.org/Articles.htm
I am pasting a feedback from a member.
'got it right, I met many people from palastine, none of them qualifies as good human'
2011 Down With Webster - Rich Girl
rheoretro
11-12 04:46 PM
It's at the very least peculiar that some states don't have any activity through IV. The one in which I live is one of those. Even more amazing, I personally don't know anyone in my city or any other city, stuck in my same situation because of retrogression. Strange, but true.
Amen, brother/sister! Where are these half million people? 500,000 divided by 50 states makes for 10000 in each state (on an average; although I doubt that Alaska and Hawaii have that many, while states like NY, CA, NJ, IL, FL, TX, PA must beat the mean for sure, but still). 6500 ain't enough!
Amen, brother/sister! Where are these half million people? 500,000 divided by 50 states makes for 10000 in each state (on an average; although I doubt that Alaska and Hawaii have that many, while states like NY, CA, NJ, IL, FL, TX, PA must beat the mean for sure, but still). 6500 ain't enough!
more...
krishnam70
12-29 12:53 PM
It has no relevance in an immigration related forum
kris
kris
obviously
08-05 08:59 AM
Rolling Flood,
Clearly, you are a NumberUSA person trying to provoke deep rifts amongst a highly skilled workforce that succeeded in getting HR 5882 out there. Your game is up. Look, no one is claiming porting / interfiling is due to 'length of time'. Each application, under each category, is for a DIFFERENT job. Now, obviously, when you gain experience in one job, you become MORE ELIGIBLE for another job, typically at a more senior level. With that, comes a higher income and higher TAXES back to the USA. So, it is likely that EB3 applicants might have started in one job, gained 5 or 6 years experience, a Masters degree and a few certifications etc., and then become attractive candidates for jobs that require a Masters degree ... hence being eligible for an EB2 filing. The folks reviewing EB applications didnt start yesterday and are not wet behind their ears. EB3's that interfile to EB2's have to, LIKE ANYONE ELSE, show the merits of the EB2 application BY ITSELF. There is no notion of 'imagined eligibility'. If that hypothesis were true, how do we know that you did not suffer from a case of 'imagined eligibility' yourself??!!
Your perverted logic that people are using interfiling on the premise of 'waiting time in EB3 queues' is a fallacy without legal merit. It is a classic case of riding the ladder of inference and using your own conclusions to make up supporting-evidence, to the contrary of reality and law.
Now, if you think you can snake in a controversy through a law suit, only to protect your inflated sense of protectionism, keep in mind, that your target is the EB2 category itself, not the interfiling process. That latter is a provision of law. I presume that you are in EB2 yourself. Be prepared for unintended consequences because USCIS could very well freeze ALL EB2's INCLUDING YOURS! Might seem a far stretch, but realistically, anytime a court sees 'merit' in challenging an established system, ALL come under purview. How can your case be assumed to be 'innocent' while everyone else that you are against be 'guilty'? How do we know that YOUR EB2 filing was not based on 'assumed eligibility'?
There are numerous cases of people going to court seeking 'justice' only to find themselves very quickly standing 'on the other side'... trying to get out of a self inflicted mess.
Obviously, you have issues that run deeper than discontentment with US legal immigration process. Get yourself some help. Seriously.
I challenge you to disclose
YOUR REAL NAME
YOUR CASE NUMBER
YOUR EMPLOYER'S NAME
YOUR EB2 JOB DESCRIPTION
so that the larger community can find out if there really is no eligible US person to take that job. Seriously. Want to play that game? I can give you a 100% guarantee, that you would rather fight a 'shadow cause' being the coward you are ... and wont hold yourself up to the kind of scrutiny that you wish to hold others to.
Clearly, you are a NumberUSA person trying to provoke deep rifts amongst a highly skilled workforce that succeeded in getting HR 5882 out there. Your game is up. Look, no one is claiming porting / interfiling is due to 'length of time'. Each application, under each category, is for a DIFFERENT job. Now, obviously, when you gain experience in one job, you become MORE ELIGIBLE for another job, typically at a more senior level. With that, comes a higher income and higher TAXES back to the USA. So, it is likely that EB3 applicants might have started in one job, gained 5 or 6 years experience, a Masters degree and a few certifications etc., and then become attractive candidates for jobs that require a Masters degree ... hence being eligible for an EB2 filing. The folks reviewing EB applications didnt start yesterday and are not wet behind their ears. EB3's that interfile to EB2's have to, LIKE ANYONE ELSE, show the merits of the EB2 application BY ITSELF. There is no notion of 'imagined eligibility'. If that hypothesis were true, how do we know that you did not suffer from a case of 'imagined eligibility' yourself??!!
Your perverted logic that people are using interfiling on the premise of 'waiting time in EB3 queues' is a fallacy without legal merit. It is a classic case of riding the ladder of inference and using your own conclusions to make up supporting-evidence, to the contrary of reality and law.
Now, if you think you can snake in a controversy through a law suit, only to protect your inflated sense of protectionism, keep in mind, that your target is the EB2 category itself, not the interfiling process. That latter is a provision of law. I presume that you are in EB2 yourself. Be prepared for unintended consequences because USCIS could very well freeze ALL EB2's INCLUDING YOURS! Might seem a far stretch, but realistically, anytime a court sees 'merit' in challenging an established system, ALL come under purview. How can your case be assumed to be 'innocent' while everyone else that you are against be 'guilty'? How do we know that YOUR EB2 filing was not based on 'assumed eligibility'?
There are numerous cases of people going to court seeking 'justice' only to find themselves very quickly standing 'on the other side'... trying to get out of a self inflicted mess.
Obviously, you have issues that run deeper than discontentment with US legal immigration process. Get yourself some help. Seriously.
I challenge you to disclose
YOUR REAL NAME
YOUR CASE NUMBER
YOUR EMPLOYER'S NAME
YOUR EB2 JOB DESCRIPTION
so that the larger community can find out if there really is no eligible US person to take that job. Seriously. Want to play that game? I can give you a 100% guarantee, that you would rather fight a 'shadow cause' being the coward you are ... and wont hold yourself up to the kind of scrutiny that you wish to hold others to.
more...
alterego
10-03 04:03 PM
Have you seen any other politician talk about the lengthy and expensive process of LEGAL immigrants? Obama has spoken about this in an interview. Now, I know here you will want to make the differential between EB and FB immigration and what he means. I am aware of this distinction, however never have I heard a single word from the Republican side about the grossly unfair situation of lengthy greencard backlogs. The fact is EB immigration will not be modified in a vacuum and the conservative republicans will always block any relief for us, no matter what.
2010 down with webster.
nogc_noproblem
08-05 01:40 PM
A little girl asked her mother, 'How did the human race appear?'
The mother answered, 'God made Adam and Eve and they had children and so was all mankind made.'
Two days later the girl asked her father the same question. The father answered, 'Many years ago there were monkeys from which the human race evolved.'
The confused girl returned to her mother and said, 'Mom, how is it possible that you told me the human race was created by God, and Dad said they developed from monkeys?'
The mother answered, 'Well, dear, it is very simple. I told you about my side of the family and your father told you about his.'
The mother answered, 'God made Adam and Eve and they had children and so was all mankind made.'
Two days later the girl asked her father the same question. The father answered, 'Many years ago there were monkeys from which the human race evolved.'
The confused girl returned to her mother and said, 'Mom, how is it possible that you told me the human race was created by God, and Dad said they developed from monkeys?'
The mother answered, 'Well, dear, it is very simple. I told you about my side of the family and your father told you about his.'
more...
jonty_11
07-13 11:28 PM
Great one -
Yes - if you have enough skills and experience amend your category to EB1, you will get your visa way faster before EB2.
always kep in mind that its not ur qualification that matters... its the Job Requirement that you have filed LC for?..
i.e. You could be a rocket scientiest but if the job u work is of a software analyst..etc that DOL classifies as EB3...you are EB3....so u dont just need to change you category (to EB2 or EB1) to refile but need to change your job to one that can classify for EB2 or EB1.
Yes - if you have enough skills and experience amend your category to EB1, you will get your visa way faster before EB2.
always kep in mind that its not ur qualification that matters... its the Job Requirement that you have filed LC for?..
i.e. You could be a rocket scientiest but if the job u work is of a software analyst..etc that DOL classifies as EB3...you are EB3....so u dont just need to change you category (to EB2 or EB1) to refile but need to change your job to one that can classify for EB2 or EB1.
hair gomez apr Webster whoa is
jkays94
07-10 02:02 AM
Like UN said..wonder what we/they achieve with lawsuits,but we can expect a lot of digging into our cases during AOS...
(lawsuiting/challenging is no good idea with USCIS/DOS,they will not budge even a mm,they r huge monster govt organizations,it is best to move with the flow and instead work on ideas of allowing to file 485 when dates r not current etc..)
USCIS Settlement Notices and Agreements (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2492db65022ee010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=2492db65022ee010VgnVCM1000000ecd190a RCRD)
(lawsuiting/challenging is no good idea with USCIS/DOS,they will not budge even a mm,they r huge monster govt organizations,it is best to move with the flow and instead work on ideas of allowing to file 485 when dates r not current etc..)
USCIS Settlement Notices and Agreements (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2492db65022ee010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=2492db65022ee010VgnVCM1000000ecd190a RCRD)
more...
alisa
01-04 02:13 AM
Please don't kid yourself ...all these points seem so shallow that there's no way one could read too much into it. I find this exchange meaningful though it took me 4 posts. Please keep playing your game.I think you proved the point that I initially raised.
Like someone pointed out before you can't wake up someone that's pretending sleeping.
Thank you.
OK.
But I still can't figure out what your argument really is.
Lets agree to disagree, I suppose. Let me know, if you can, what exactly and specifically it is that you didn't like about what I said.
Like someone pointed out before you can't wake up someone that's pretending sleeping.
Thank you.
OK.
But I still can't figure out what your argument really is.
Lets agree to disagree, I suppose. Let me know, if you can, what exactly and specifically it is that you didn't like about what I said.
hot Defeating Webster
sk2006
06-05 12:27 PM
Buying a house would be a BIG Mistake right now..
Sub-Prime losses we have been hearing in main stream media is just the begining.
Wait until 2010 when Alt-A and ARMs taken in 2005/6 start resetting.
It will be a big mess.
and
NEVER LISTEN TO REAL ESTATE AGENT'S ADVICE!
Sub-Prime losses we have been hearing in main stream media is just the begining.
Wait until 2010 when Alt-A and ARMs taken in 2005/6 start resetting.
It will be a big mess.
and
NEVER LISTEN TO REAL ESTATE AGENT'S ADVICE!
more...
house of medredg whoa to me sep
NKR
04-08 12:46 PM
If I buy a house today and loose 100K in value each year for 2 more years, how is it a savy investment? Savy investors buy low and sell high. Unless you are saying housing is not going to fall further, I am totally confused how it is an intelligent investment. Nightmare stories of the savy investors are all over the news.
If you want to debate that housing is not going to fall further, history is against you. There are housing bubbles in the past and they take years to correct. It doesn't happen in months. Has there been so much disparity between house price and income ever in history of US? Show me the proof why the prices would not fall further. Do you know what happened to the last housing bubble and how long it took to correct itself?
Don't tell me this time it is different. It is probably different because a fruit picker earning 20K income was able to buy a house for 500K with no down payment at the high of the bubble. It will be different this time because it will be the worst housing bubble ever. Please don't mislead people with false hope. It is their hard earned money.
Who said that if you buy a house today you will lose 100k this year and the in the next?. Where does it say so?. How did you come up with that figure?. Which fruit picker earning 20k bought a house worth 500k without a down payment?. Giving analogies and examples are fine, but try to make it more realistic. You are accusing somebody of misleading people, but look at what you are saying. Don�t try to scare people.
This might not be the right time to buy a house. After a couple of years when things start to look bright, then again you will come up with an excuse to not buy a house. Looks like you and alberto pinto might want to spend the rest of your lives in an apartment. That is fine too if that is what you guys want.
Keeping this thread alive has become Mr Pinto�s mission, it doesn�t matter if the person who opened this thread has already made a decision and moved on...
If you want to debate that housing is not going to fall further, history is against you. There are housing bubbles in the past and they take years to correct. It doesn't happen in months. Has there been so much disparity between house price and income ever in history of US? Show me the proof why the prices would not fall further. Do you know what happened to the last housing bubble and how long it took to correct itself?
Don't tell me this time it is different. It is probably different because a fruit picker earning 20K income was able to buy a house for 500K with no down payment at the high of the bubble. It will be different this time because it will be the worst housing bubble ever. Please don't mislead people with false hope. It is their hard earned money.
Who said that if you buy a house today you will lose 100k this year and the in the next?. Where does it say so?. How did you come up with that figure?. Which fruit picker earning 20k bought a house worth 500k without a down payment?. Giving analogies and examples are fine, but try to make it more realistic. You are accusing somebody of misleading people, but look at what you are saying. Don�t try to scare people.
This might not be the right time to buy a house. After a couple of years when things start to look bright, then again you will come up with an excuse to not buy a house. Looks like you and alberto pinto might want to spend the rest of your lives in an apartment. That is fine too if that is what you guys want.
Keeping this thread alive has become Mr Pinto�s mission, it doesn�t matter if the person who opened this thread has already made a decision and moved on...
tattoo this movie webster whoa is
krishna.ahd
12-26 03:31 PM
A full fledged war between India and Pakistan is very very unlikely.
Look at stratfor.com
Look at stratfor.com
more...
pictures Down the song by dinah , march
alterego
04-06 09:35 AM
I think you missed my point. I was not trying to connect the ARM reset schedule with write-offs at wall street firms. Instead, I was trying to point out that there will be increased number of foreclosures as those ARMs reset over the next 36 months.
The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).
On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.
Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).
Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.
You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))
Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).
Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.
So you stand to lose:
1. Your down payment of $120k
2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k
Total potential loss: $250,000!!!
This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.
My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.
The truth is probably between the extreme pessimism in this post and the unbridled optimism in other posts.
Never trust what realtors tell you, they are in it to make a sale and it is always in their interest to talk up the market. I have never yet seen/read/heard a realtor speak negatively about the market. Even if they are asked an obvious question like do you think prices have fallen in the last year they will say they have trended down a little but the foreclosure crisis is over now, and the fed is acting decisively and the demographics speak to a longer term secular uptrend bla bla blaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Some BS to justify their talk.
The bottom line is there will be a hangover of a few years from this unprecedented bubble in housing, it will be more severe in hotspot areas we all know about. In those areas you will likely see a 25-30% drop with about half of it already baked in, another half spread out more slowly over the next 3 yrs that that graph illustrated. Additionally the inflation rate of 3-4%(you can expect an uptick over the next 2-3 yrs) will eat away another few percentage points of your capital , while also eating away at your loan.
The net effect is that you would be another 20% or so the worse off in these hotbed areas in the next 3-4 yrs. In more steady areas, that fall will be much more muted perhaps half or less of that. However sales will slow to a crawl with the slowing jobs market.
The main determinants of house prices are.
1) Inventory............a negative right now.
2) Credit............negative but with scope for improvement in the next 12 mths.
3) Jobs...........likely to be down for the next 6 months atleast.
4) Salaries..................Global pressures on these will likley persist with some tax help to average americans likley if Dems. take control.
5) Market psychology...................likely damaged for the near term atleast 12 mths.
6) The replacement value of homes. Land is a non factor here in this country. I scoff at suggestions to the contrary. Even in cities with restrictions, this is a yawn yawn factor. Unless you are speaking about downtown manhattan it is not a factor. Construction costs on the other hand are a factor. A value of $100 per Sq Ft of constructed value is perhaps par for the course right now, that can only go up, with rising commodity prices, salaries for construction with illegals kicked out etc over time this will go up.
7) Rental rates to home prices. This too will catch up. Folks kicked out of sub prime mortgage homes need to go somewhere. They will likley drive demand for rentals.
All of this points to a fast then a slow correction. I think we are nearing the end of the fast phase of home price correction. 20-25% in hotbed areas and 7-12% in other areas. I think you will see a more gradual correction of a similar magnitude spread over 3-4 yrs now.
Lets see how it all unfolds.
Remember Every drinking binge has a hangover! The US housing market is now in one.
The next phase of the logic is: increased foreclosures will lead to increased inventory, which leads to lower prices, which leads to still more foreclosures and "walk aways" (people -citizens- who just dont want to pay the high mortgages any more since it is way cheaper to rent). This leads to still lower prices. Prices will likely stabilize when it is cheaper to buy vs. rent. Right now that calculus is inverted. In many bubble areas (both coasts, at a minimum) you would pay significantly more to buy than to rent (2X or more per month with a conventional mortgage in some good areas).
On the whole, I will debate only on financial and rational points. I am not going to question someone's emotional position on "homeownership." It is too complicated to extract someone out of their strongly held beliefs about how it is better to pay your own mortgage than someone elses, etc. All that is hubris that is ingrained from 5+ years of abnormally strong rising prices.
Let us say that you have two kids, age 2 and 5. The 5 year old is entering kindergarten next fall. You decide to buy in a good school district this year. Since your main decision was based on school choice, let us say that your investment horizon is 16 years (the year your 2 year old will finish high school at age 18).
Let us further assume that you will buy a house at the price of $600,000 in Bergen County, with 20% down ($120,000) this summer. The terms of the loan are 30 year fixed, 5.75% APR. This loan payment alone is $2800 per month. On top of that you will be paying at least 1.5% of value in property taxes, around $9,000 per year, or around $750 per month. Insurance will cost you around $1500 - $2000 per year, or another $150 or so per month. So your total committed payments will be around $3,700 per month.
You will pay for yard work (unless you are a do-it-yourself-er), and maintenance, and through the nose for utilities because a big house costs big to heat and cool. (Summers are OK, but desis want their houses warm enough in the winter for a lungi or veshti:))
Let us assume further that in Bergen county, you can rent something bigger and more comfortable than your 1200 sq ft apartment from a private party for around $2000. So your rental cost to house payment ratio is around 1.8X (3700/2000).
Let us say further that the market drops 30% conservatively (will likely be more), from today through bottom in 4 years. Your $600k house will be worth 30% less, i.e. $420,000. Your loan will still be worth around $450k. If you needed to sell at this point in time, with 6% selling cost, you will need to bring cash to closing as a seller i.e., you are screwed. At escrow, you will need to pay off the loan of $450k, and pay 6% closing costs, which means you need to bring $450k+$25k-$420k = $55,000 to closing.
So you stand to lose:
1. Your down payment of $120k
2. Your cash at closing if you sell in 4 years: $55k
3. Rental differential: 48 months X (3700 - 2000) = $81k
Total potential loss: $250,000!!!
This is not a "nightmare scenario" but a very real one. It is happenning right now in many parts of the country, and is just now hitting the more populated areas of the two coasts. There is still more to come.
My 2 cents for you guys, desi bhais, please do what you need to do, but keep your eyes open. This time the downturn is very different from the business-investment related downturn that followed the dot com bust earlier this decade.
The truth is probably between the extreme pessimism in this post and the unbridled optimism in other posts.
Never trust what realtors tell you, they are in it to make a sale and it is always in their interest to talk up the market. I have never yet seen/read/heard a realtor speak negatively about the market. Even if they are asked an obvious question like do you think prices have fallen in the last year they will say they have trended down a little but the foreclosure crisis is over now, and the fed is acting decisively and the demographics speak to a longer term secular uptrend bla bla blaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Some BS to justify their talk.
The bottom line is there will be a hangover of a few years from this unprecedented bubble in housing, it will be more severe in hotspot areas we all know about. In those areas you will likely see a 25-30% drop with about half of it already baked in, another half spread out more slowly over the next 3 yrs that that graph illustrated. Additionally the inflation rate of 3-4%(you can expect an uptick over the next 2-3 yrs) will eat away another few percentage points of your capital , while also eating away at your loan.
The net effect is that you would be another 20% or so the worse off in these hotbed areas in the next 3-4 yrs. In more steady areas, that fall will be much more muted perhaps half or less of that. However sales will slow to a crawl with the slowing jobs market.
The main determinants of house prices are.
1) Inventory............a negative right now.
2) Credit............negative but with scope for improvement in the next 12 mths.
3) Jobs...........likely to be down for the next 6 months atleast.
4) Salaries..................Global pressures on these will likley persist with some tax help to average americans likley if Dems. take control.
5) Market psychology...................likely damaged for the near term atleast 12 mths.
6) The replacement value of homes. Land is a non factor here in this country. I scoff at suggestions to the contrary. Even in cities with restrictions, this is a yawn yawn factor. Unless you are speaking about downtown manhattan it is not a factor. Construction costs on the other hand are a factor. A value of $100 per Sq Ft of constructed value is perhaps par for the course right now, that can only go up, with rising commodity prices, salaries for construction with illegals kicked out etc over time this will go up.
7) Rental rates to home prices. This too will catch up. Folks kicked out of sub prime mortgage homes need to go somewhere. They will likley drive demand for rentals.
All of this points to a fast then a slow correction. I think we are nearing the end of the fast phase of home price correction. 20-25% in hotbed areas and 7-12% in other areas. I think you will see a more gradual correction of a similar magnitude spread over 3-4 yrs now.
Lets see how it all unfolds.
Remember Every drinking binge has a hangover! The US housing market is now in one.
dresses Down With Webster -10
sumanitha
12-22 07:49 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VORdATj6s4w&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=zakir+naik+2008&emb=0&aq=1&oq=zakir+nai
more...
makeup with whoopi webster whoa
mxh72c
07-14 08:55 AM
CIR is coming BACK in 2009! The only change that will happen in immigration is CIR due to the pandering politics. IV and all its members focus should be ensuring CIR is not passed on the backs of EB green cards. The group most likely to be screwed over will be EB3. All our energies and money should be on CIR and that we have a seat on the table when these compromises are made.
girlfriend Down With Webster for quot;Whoa Is
CreatedToday
01-06 05:55 PM
Checkpoints? What do you expect Israel to do?
Given a chance, they strap a bomb in their waist and rush to Israel!!
India has legitimate reason to attack pakistan ...
But Palestine is not like that. They are fighting for their right. Have you ever seen or heard about how people in palestin live their day to day life? How many check points they have to cross before crossing a mile? How much time they spend waiting on each crossing?
...
We have seen Isreals brutal aggression year after year. Killing civilians and kids year after year. I don't know how much more blood they need??
Given a chance, they strap a bomb in their waist and rush to Israel!!
India has legitimate reason to attack pakistan ...
But Palestine is not like that. They are fighting for their right. Have you ever seen or heard about how people in palestin live their day to day life? How many check points they have to cross before crossing a mile? How much time they spend waiting on each crossing?
...
We have seen Isreals brutal aggression year after year. Killing civilians and kids year after year. I don't know how much more blood they need??
hairstyles Down With Webster for “Whoa Is
unitednations
07-08 10:41 AM
Hi,
I applied for GC under schedule A in may06 .My husband filed as derivative.He received a notice of intent to denial last month .Reason being he did not have paystubs for a period of more than 6 months during 2000 and 2001.His employer at that time did not pay him even after he worked for 4 months then he took few more months to change his company(more than 180 days)In 2002 he went to India and came back .and in 2004 filed for a GC as primary petitioner and me as a derivative .last year he withdrew the petition after he received several RFE`S fearing the worst.Even though he no longer has GC filed as primary petitioner he received notice of intent to deny for the petion filed through me saying that his H1 was not legal as could`nt show proof for several months and that when he filed for AOS he used those years as work experience.
and now another problem is I applied for EAD in march and have not received new ead.my old ead expired 10 days ago.and now Iam not working.
We bought a house last year thinking that under schedule A we`ll get GC in no time.Now we know it is a terrible mistake.Now both of us can`t work and had to take my son out of daycare. and we have house payments to make.We put our house for sale weeks ago and so far no offers.I contacted local representative to expedite My EAD and also contacted USCIS to expedite it,
citing financial burden.We are spending sleepless nights and have no clue what to do for my EAD and his AOS.pLEASE HELP.
Did anyone face similar situation .Any suggestions are welcome.
The other posters are correct in that they are telling you that your spouse is covered under section 245k. That is as long as a person hasn't overstayed an I-94 card by more then six months; no major criminal or health issues then everything is reset upon leaving and re-entering USA.
However; USCIS officers try to find other ways to nail people when a person needs protections such as 245k.
I have seen a couple of cases where people have had an i-140 denied due to education. They appealed and re-filed another 140 and in the eta 750b they omitted certain education diplomas that were listed in the first application. USCIS then accused them of fraud and a permanent barrier to getting greencard.
Now; it looks like the officer is going down the same road on your husbands case. Accusing your husband of essentially fraud by claiming that he was working with a company listed in the g-325a biographical information when it appears to uscis that he wasn't working with them. 245k or any other part of immigration law which could protect him becomes difficult to use when they accuse you of fraud.
To get a better grasp of things; you need to post the RFE's that he received on his original case (don't post general stuff but be specific) and what they are saying now. It will allow people to help you better assess the situation.
I applied for GC under schedule A in may06 .My husband filed as derivative.He received a notice of intent to denial last month .Reason being he did not have paystubs for a period of more than 6 months during 2000 and 2001.His employer at that time did not pay him even after he worked for 4 months then he took few more months to change his company(more than 180 days)In 2002 he went to India and came back .and in 2004 filed for a GC as primary petitioner and me as a derivative .last year he withdrew the petition after he received several RFE`S fearing the worst.Even though he no longer has GC filed as primary petitioner he received notice of intent to deny for the petion filed through me saying that his H1 was not legal as could`nt show proof for several months and that when he filed for AOS he used those years as work experience.
and now another problem is I applied for EAD in march and have not received new ead.my old ead expired 10 days ago.and now Iam not working.
We bought a house last year thinking that under schedule A we`ll get GC in no time.Now we know it is a terrible mistake.Now both of us can`t work and had to take my son out of daycare. and we have house payments to make.We put our house for sale weeks ago and so far no offers.I contacted local representative to expedite My EAD and also contacted USCIS to expedite it,
citing financial burden.We are spending sleepless nights and have no clue what to do for my EAD and his AOS.pLEASE HELP.
Did anyone face similar situation .Any suggestions are welcome.
The other posters are correct in that they are telling you that your spouse is covered under section 245k. That is as long as a person hasn't overstayed an I-94 card by more then six months; no major criminal or health issues then everything is reset upon leaving and re-entering USA.
However; USCIS officers try to find other ways to nail people when a person needs protections such as 245k.
I have seen a couple of cases where people have had an i-140 denied due to education. They appealed and re-filed another 140 and in the eta 750b they omitted certain education diplomas that were listed in the first application. USCIS then accused them of fraud and a permanent barrier to getting greencard.
Now; it looks like the officer is going down the same road on your husbands case. Accusing your husband of essentially fraud by claiming that he was working with a company listed in the g-325a biographical information when it appears to uscis that he wasn't working with them. 245k or any other part of immigration law which could protect him becomes difficult to use when they accuse you of fraud.
To get a better grasp of things; you need to post the RFE's that he received on his original case (don't post general stuff but be specific) and what they are saying now. It will allow people to help you better assess the situation.
Blessing&Lifeisbeautiful
08-08 05:48 PM
Actually; I didn't think it was courageous at all. I had to practice what I preach.
One of the reasons they ask for tax returns, w2's is they want to assess your intentions; if tax returns, etc. , is out of line with offered wage then it can make them think that it is not believable you will be doing that job once greencard gets approved.
Once 485 is filed; you are in a period of authorized stay. At that point; you can sit around and do nothing; switch jobs, etc.; However; to keep working you need to have authorization (ie., EAD card if you don't hold H-1b).
I didn't prepare my personal tax returns on purpose because uscis could have assessed my intentions differently. When I asked him why he wanted to see the tax returns for 2005 and 2006; even though I have unrestricted employment and I can do nothing if I please; he responded it was to assess intention. Since he saw I was self employed; if my tax returns were out of line with the offered job I was going to take upon greencard approval then they may not believe it.
Now; I didn't give him any financial data for 2005 and 2006. Although this is legal; if I was going to port to self employment then he could have assessed whether I was going to become a public charge or how I was living in 2005 and 2006. I had all my financial documents (ie., bank balances, brokerage account); just in case he went down this road.
he didn't but just in case he wanted to; I was ready for it.
bump
One of the reasons they ask for tax returns, w2's is they want to assess your intentions; if tax returns, etc. , is out of line with offered wage then it can make them think that it is not believable you will be doing that job once greencard gets approved.
Once 485 is filed; you are in a period of authorized stay. At that point; you can sit around and do nothing; switch jobs, etc.; However; to keep working you need to have authorization (ie., EAD card if you don't hold H-1b).
I didn't prepare my personal tax returns on purpose because uscis could have assessed my intentions differently. When I asked him why he wanted to see the tax returns for 2005 and 2006; even though I have unrestricted employment and I can do nothing if I please; he responded it was to assess intention. Since he saw I was self employed; if my tax returns were out of line with the offered job I was going to take upon greencard approval then they may not believe it.
Now; I didn't give him any financial data for 2005 and 2006. Although this is legal; if I was going to port to self employment then he could have assessed whether I was going to become a public charge or how I was living in 2005 and 2006. I had all my financial documents (ie., bank balances, brokerage account); just in case he went down this road.
he didn't but just in case he wanted to; I was ready for it.
bump
guchi472000
03-24 01:50 PM
Yesterday i got the mail from USCIS stating below. "My PD Dec 2006, INDIA, EB2 (I GOT MARRIED AFTER I APPLIED FOR I 485, SO MY WIFE IS NOT YET IN APPLICATION. I AM WAITING FOR DATES TO GET CURRENT FOR ME SO I CAN ADD HER INTO MY APPLICATION"
I dont know whether its a good sign or bad sign. I scanned and send this letter to my company and attorney.GURUS and EXPERTS pls help me!!!!!
Request for Evidence
The office is unable to complete the processing of your application without further information. Please read and comply with the request below, then submit the evidence to above address. Include the copy of this letter and place the gold sheet on the top of your documents.
Submit the letter of your employment attesting to your offer of proposed employment. This letter should be written on the company�s official letterhead, citing the date you began working; if the position is permanent and full time; what the position is; the position that you currently hold for the company(if any) ; and the salary offered.
You must submit this request in 30 days from the date of this letter. Failure to do so may result in the denial of your application.
Officer # 11**
I dont know whether its a good sign or bad sign. I scanned and send this letter to my company and attorney.GURUS and EXPERTS pls help me!!!!!
Request for Evidence
The office is unable to complete the processing of your application without further information. Please read and comply with the request below, then submit the evidence to above address. Include the copy of this letter and place the gold sheet on the top of your documents.
Submit the letter of your employment attesting to your offer of proposed employment. This letter should be written on the company�s official letterhead, citing the date you began working; if the position is permanent and full time; what the position is; the position that you currently hold for the company(if any) ; and the salary offered.
You must submit this request in 30 days from the date of this letter. Failure to do so may result in the denial of your application.
Officer # 11**
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