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  • Macaca
    06-28 09:28 AM
    My take on this is that if 40,000 visa numbers remain for July, August and September, then USCIS by itself cannot use 40,000 visa numbers in one month alone (i.e. in july), because the DOS just supplies them monthly quotas. So, if you take approx.

    18,000 per month, you are looking at 18,000 for July and 18,000 for August. Then, USCIS have to use them. Which means USCIS has to approve 18,000 petitions in July.

    As, I have heard that USCIS just started out sending finger print notices this month, because Priority Dates moved a lot in June 2007. Now, the fingerprints, will come in and forwarded to FBI for security clearance. That will take atleast a month. And, all petitions activated for clearance in June 2007 won't get adjudicated till August 31, 2007, because it takes atleast three months, for a case to approve and the visa number to be used. (Remember Visa numbers are allocated on visas used and not how amny people applied). Please share your thoughts. Thats my 2 pennies.
    Ombudsman report mentioned that 40K GCs would be wasted at the end 2007. This means that there should be more then 40K GCs at the beggining of June.

    The applications submitted starting this month will take some time (whatever that is) for processing. GC # is assigned after 485 processing is complete.

    USCIS had approved 485s before June. They have started getting GCs and are decrementing the 40K+ count. That is, applications being submitted now are not decrementing the 40K+ count.

    I don't think there is a monthly GC quota.





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  • sachug22
    09-14 02:52 PM
    I was among the very first to predict forward movement of EB2 (8 months back when most of the information available suggested no movement). Looking at September approvals i will see there will be very few cases pending from 2002-2004 for EB2 (those pending will be cleared in next few months since PD will stay current).

    My estimate is that

    EB2-India pending applications with PD older than Dec-2004 no more than 2000.
    EB2 India had used 8000-10000 visa in 2009 (5000-7000 in Sept 2009 alone). It will not surprise me if this number is as high as 11-13K.
    EB2-India all pending I-485 applications (till July 2007) is around 30000 (as of 1st Oct 2009) * see latter post on how.


    Holding following assumptions we will see more forward movement in coming months and whole of 2010 fiscal year.

    Slow improvement in economy (fewer new applications from EB2-ROW and EB1)
    PERM applications stay stuck (as they are very few approvals in last 12 months)
    CIS is force to allocate visa every quarter (leading to large spill-over)
    Fewer EB3 to EB2 porting


    CIS has prudently processed most old cases (pending for name-checks) and also pre-adjucated most cases filled in 2007-2008. So if they have visa numbers pending we should see big movment in Dec 2009 Visa Bulletin. This movement could cover all EB2-I 2005 cases in next two quarters (by March 2010). How explained below

    EB2 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)
    EB1 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)

    Assuming 3k spillover from (EB1/EB4/EB5 to EB2) => EB2 will get 13K visa
    EB2 ROW uses 7K (700 India, 700 China, +5k others) - there are 6K visa to allocated by Dec 2009 and 12K by March 2010 which will be given to EB2-India.

    BEC LCA applicants in 2005 estimate (EB2 India) = 2000 => 4400
    EB2-India PERM applicants in 2005 (thanks TempGC) -> 5311 LCA (Around 1300 got approved in aug/sept 2008)= 4000 LCA => 8800 GC

    Total pending I-485 in 2005 (EB2 India) ~ 13000

    This would mean PD will cross 2005 in next 2 quarters. I have pesimetic estimates so it will not surprise me it the dates move more rapidly.

    The analysis is very optimistic and does not account for

    Duplicates (multiple I-485 for same person)
    Discarded Labor (many people just discard the perm since they switch jobs or did not want to do GC)
    Upgrades (people had EB2 perm but got GC in EB1 category)
    Cross-chargeability (with spouse of PERM hold birth from non retrogressed country)
    Denied I-140/I-485 after PERM approval


    If these makeup 10-20% applications then dates should move faster.





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  • thepaew
    05-29 09:06 AM
    As far as i can tell, the main issue is that there are not enough visas for Indian applicants. The possible EB1 misuse is a sideshow.

    Currently, the EB2-I wait time is 20+ years. Even if there are no EB1 applications the wait time would reduce to 10+ years. EB3-I wait time is probably more than the life span of most individuals.





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  • sunty
    02-13 01:47 PM
    After reading all these comments specially the one from walking_dude, I think its prudent of IV for engaging USCIS in a constructive way....Even though it is very frustrating for us now, it would be a mistake to cut all connections to USCIS by a lawsuit..

    Lawsuit should be explored as a last resort for relief and I am for it..

    There are a number of things:

    1) A lawsuit cannot increase the GC visa numbers. Courts cannot change the law. The only relief we can seek through a lawsuit is to recapture the wasted visa numbers in the previous decade that amount to 218000.

    2) No matter how angry and frustrated we are, we should keep our cool heads and contribute as much as we can to the letter campaign. This might achieve some results. If it happens, it will provide big immediate relief and help reduce the backlogs.

    3) Lets see what's going on with the "Scaled down CIR type" bill House Dems are talking about, as mentioned my Greg Siskind etc. Hopes for this are low but no harm in hoping.

    4) I do see the light at the end of the tunnel. Once the new President steps in(Democratic or Republican), full-blown CIR would be revived. For legal EB immigrants, it would overhaul the whole GC system, making it point based and would most probably include EB visa reacpture and visa increase. This might happen in early 2009.

    5) With USCIS hiring 1500 employees and adjucators, processing times might improve.

    This is the time even the lawsuit would take to get some relief, if at all.

    So, let's be patient and keep the lawsuit option (if it possible) absolutely as a last resort.



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  • Ramba
    03-31 08:47 PM
    Even Muslims in Gujarat have started realizing congress is good for nothing.Congress just makes promises that it never keeps up.Uses opportunistic politics.well of course you create opportunities that are helpful to people which will bring prosperity along with awareness.Increased awareness among masses means end to dynastic rule.So why keep up promises and shoot your self right?

    On the other hand Modi who doesn't even need Muslim votes in Gujarat has worked for overall development. In terms of this Imam from Gujarat;
    'Seeing him work for two or three years after the riots, Muslims too felt they had an opportunity to prosper in the peaceful environment that Modi government was creating. He has provided an atmosphere which is conducive for those who want to trade peacefully in Gujarat. Therefore, intelligent Muslims supported BJP during 2007 Assembly polls'

    Apparently there this group called ,'Tablighis ' who have foreign funding ( which was of course was checked by Modi govt) working towards keeping the hatred alive.It's anybody's guess who benefits from such hatred apart from congress party.

    This guy also says:
    'But let me tell you, projection of 2002 riots was much more grave than the situation actually was. '



    But you know congress party that orchestrated sikh riots went to form govt ,Rajiv Gandhi speaking about sikh riots said 'When a banyan tree falls earth will shake' then he went to be country's PM indulging in all kinds of scams.Now his wife,children are holding offices.Congress party guys directly involved in the attacks also keep getting party tickets.That OK?

    Agree hard work,entrepreneurship and other such qualities are in gujaratis's blood.Intersting how until Modi that time of prosperity never came.

    Most of Telugu people are in I.T , but time for Hyd to get onto International map didn't come until CBN.Again during the current Congress regime in Hyd that time kind of took back step.

    Name of that time is good governance.

    I am not defending any party or person. Everybody is equally bad. Let, all the Muslims in Gujarat may start love him, and entire Gujarat may vote for him. That does not matter. My point is that those people who run for high office should not have any criminal background, despite how much qualified or skilled they are. Assume, if you involved in small domestic violence, and if you fail in small background check you will not get GC even if you are a Nobel Prize winner. Think about PM post and its responsibilities.





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  • qplearn
    10-23 01:02 PM
    Hello everyone.

    I was wondering if someone could point me to how exactly labor substitution works.

    Before anyone starts jumping down my throat, i am JUST looking for documentation on the full process and I DID try looking on the google.

    If someone has any article on labor substitution and how it works please post it on here.

    Best of luck!



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  • add78
    09-24 04:41 PM
    IV has been discussing about the possibility of one for two solution (partial). The idea is to request congress to exempt EB applicants & their dependents from numerical limits of the Immigrant visas, if they buy a home. It is my belief that market sentiment is the most important thing in any financial market(s) and the housing prospects look pretty bleak. There are lot of members in the EB community that have NOT bought their own home, even though they could afford one because of the uncertainty with EB GC. IV's idea is to bridge the financial committees and judiciary committees in the House/Senate and see if corresponding Chairman/Ranking members are willing to listen. Things are moving so fast with the 700bn USD bail out plan and we will NOT have time to do things the normal way, through our counsel. We have to present this idea to the corresponding staff members of key members of congress (see list below) and see if this gets traction now or going forward.


    Are there any influential members in either house that are also pro-EB that we are especially targeting? I mean since House and Senate is debating on the bailout plan now and with McCain going back to DC to reach some agreement, there will be different ideas that can be included in the bailout, if we can get our idea across a few influential and sympathetic Representatives, they might come up with some proposal that will include this. I am sure Core is working with our lobbyists on this so I urge everyone to please send out emails.





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  • bfadlia
    02-15 02:22 PM
    u r missing my point..
    Again you are saying it's a SKILL cap. We can agree business may hire whoever they please but don't pretend that they only hire based on SKILL..
    when someone says let business hire the "best and brightest", that's my problem, he implies the best and brightest are concentrated in only two countries so that's what's insane, that's why he won't be taken seriously.
    cheers.



    Yes skills don't need a cap. If I am a business owner, I have all rights to hire best and brightest in the world. It is my choice whom I hire not Government tells me where to go for hiring. Business may hire from India or Antartica, it should not be anyone's damn concern. Let the free markets work !!! This is insane



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  • bayarea07
    07-22 06:03 PM
    Good One !!!


    While we are all sharing about our Amway solicitation experiences, let me share what I've seen in the last few years.

    Background: In the last 6 years, I've been approached over 2 dozen times in the Bay Area. Things got so bad that the same guys have approached me more than 3 times in some cases before realizing that they've already talked to me before.

    Incident #1:
    A guy approached me while I was at the mall saying "hi" and striking up a conversation. During our short chat, this 20-something desi guy proceeds to tell me that he is the CIO of Fox News. At which time I pull out my iPhone and look him up using my LinkedIn app under the guise of adding him to my network. Turns out he is an engineer at a local company which he covers up by being embarassed and saying "I haven't updated my profile." I joke about how he moved up in his career so quickly - he then makes an excuse and walks away. I never hear from him again. Another reason to love technology!


    Incident #2:
    I get approached while shopping at the local GAP store. Being a veteran of this form of solicitation, I respond by saying that I work for the San Jose Mercury News and that we are doing a story on Multi-Level Marketing schemes. I ask him if he knows anyone who would be willing to chat on the record. This guys says "Nope, don't know anyone" and walks away. I never see him again...

    Incident #3:
    I am at the Nike store and get approached by this guy asking me if I work at Google (I do not). I tell him "Nope" and walk away before he can ask me another question. I have been approached by this same guy 2 more times at other stores (within 6 months) asking me similar questions. The 3rd time, I tell him - "We've spoken before - No, I don't work at Google, No, I'm not from Delhi and No, I'm not interested in what you are selling." He is stunned and walks away with his tail between his legs :)

    Incident #4:
    The local Fry's is a popular hang out for Amway-types. I learned the hard way because I made my first mistakes here. Both guys that struck up a good conversation with me turned out to be Amway types. After the 2nd phone call, I tell them that if they call me again, I will report them to the authorities and Fry's for illegal solicitation and harassment.
    This stops both people in their tracks. I never see them at Fry's again!

    Bottom-line: Hold your ground, use technology and don't be afraid to kick them around a little bit. Saying "No" is golden!





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  • samay
    07-15 05:36 PM
    I have a general question on an option in case of I-485 denial. I know that if underlying I-140 gets denied, I-485 is also denied. My question : is the vice versa true. ? If I-485 gets denied, will I-140 also gets denied.?

    If I-485 is denied (AC21 issue for example), can an applicant choose Consular processing on existing I-140, assuming that it is not revoked? Just like if COS is not granted, applicant leaves country and goes to consulate for stamping ?

    I do not know the specific facts of your case but the denial of I-485 can be appealed successfully. Therefore if your I-485 gets denied your underlying I-140 does not get denied.



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  • gc_on_demand
    09-24 03:42 PM
    What if EB2 ROW person has labor approved but I 140 pending . because of C person can apply for 485 but will not consume visas.

    So if DOS and USCIS decides and if USCIS loose focus from approving Eb2 ROW and EB1 case for a while and technically create no demand for them leaving more spill to Eb2 india and china that can make Eb2 india C.

    Don't forget that if date is current and still USCIS keep your AOS pending some how you cannot do anything..





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  • amitjoey
    07-03 06:03 PM
    clochhead@sfchronicle.com.



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  • acruix
    07-13 04:07 PM
    http://www.immigrantslist.org/page/petition/Chertoff





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  • srikondoji
    12-16 08:38 AM
    I hope this is not our last ditch effort or one of the last chips in our possession to further our goals of Greencard.

    The crisis in united states is not just housing bubble but much more than that. I am not sure if this initiative (linking greencard and purchasing home) will find much traction in government or in medai given the complexity of the mess.
    The currency collapse which we used to discuss is now gathering storm now. The recent runnup in Dollar is peaking now and is in downward trend. Analysts are already up in arms arguing that United states have to take massive debt (assuming China and arab world is ready to give) or they have to print currency to finance their bailouts.

    --sri



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  • blueyonder
    05-02 10:14 AM
    1. This is not a political forum ... this discussion has to stop, so does the killing in SL.

    2. There is so much hatred between SL Tamils and Singhalese ... pls see the videos on you tube, rediff etc and the comments ... it like a cyber warfare and the posts contain so much hatred between both sides. No wonder there is so much killing and disregard for human life in SL now.

    3. People get confused between LTTE and Srilankan Tamils they think they are the same ... Srilankan tamils are facing humanitarian crisis and some people consider raising voice against this crisis is supporting LTTE.

    4. SL may be a different country but the Tamils living in India have interest in them and their welfare. This has to be recognized by the Indian government if it values the interest of its people. (Its a dont care situation ... and the apathy is growing in Tamilnadu that they are alienated)

    5. There is no expectation from any other Indian other than a Tamil Indian to have interest in this issue unless it was on a human grounds.

    6. This cause belongs to Tamils and only Tamils can solve this issue, Indian government is a union of many states and languages and there is oneness of being an Indian if the issue is of interest to the rest of the union. Now it belongs to a <10% Minority (Tamils) so it stays as a Tamil issue. Rest of the Indians don't care if it is happening in SL or Uganda.

    We have a oneness in this forum because we all are waiting for GC and nothing else holds us together. Lets stop this discussion now .... it doesnt take us anywhere.





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  • johnmcdonald98
    04-23 01:48 PM
    I work for this company and I moved to the different state. Now my company has approved labor from the state I was before in with similar job as mine with similar degree as mine. What do you guys say, should I go for substitution? Lawyer says that even though I am in a different state, he can apply for this, but if it takes more than 6 months, he will file state change and I will be ok. Worst case is, I have to move, but only when its approved. What do you guys say, should I go for it?



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  • coopheal
    02-23 09:37 AM
    whatamidoinghere,
    what is the source of you information.
    Can we maintain a information on such numbers on IV itself so that we have one place to see it.





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  • TeddyKoochu
    09-15 01:45 PM
    It seems most analysts here think that by Q4 2010 the approval of 485 could theorotically reach mid 2006 with a liberal allocation of spill-overs and a conservative estimate of abandonment etc.

    My question is in order for CIS to have sufficient 485 cases to review .. will they not need to advance dates still further so they can start reviewing the apps and in 2-4 years time give those folks the GC.. I am specifically talking about all those who missed the July 2007 bus and whose priority date is after july 30, 07.... any hope for poor souls like us to at least file for EAD in 2010?Or is this wishful thinking?

    Iam also one amongst this lot, as somebody told me be hopeful and cheerful, our day will come. I really understand your pain and suffering, we are kind of the worst affected lot (or atleast one of the worst affected), those who made it in Jul 07 atleast have interim relief. The extent of spillover will really determine our fortunes; I honestly believe that there is a 50-50 chance of it happening this year. Let�s wait for the experts in this group to analyze the data. Since in those days it used to take 2-3 months for labor approval we will have individuals from as early as May 07 who missed the Jul 07 bus, mine is in the last week of July. I hope we will be able to get in the bus and drive out this year!





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  • zCool
    04-28 09:17 PM
    Finally!!!..
    So what happened with Murthy's contacts and advice to INS officials etc???? :p
    This is too little .. too late..
    Most of the crooks already used up or sold after initial bulletin in march!
    But better late than never..





    soljabhai
    12-13 04:15 PM
    we, as non citizens, obviously do not have all the rights that the citizens possess. We don't know whether this rule is or is not constitutional (And as someone rightly pointed out that the expertise of a constitutional attorney is required).

    However if it can be shown that certain citizens/corporations ( for example microsoft, google etc who also make efforts and lobby congress to change the law ) are unduly disadvantaged by this per country cap, then they can be plaintiff. So in a sense, we have allies in the corporate sector with tons of money (and who want to make more!) So they might be willing to support us,
    if it is indeed found that the rule can be challenged.





    imm_pro
    01-13 04:24 PM
    Just wondering what IV Core's stand is regarding this memo



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